Prospect grades are the hardest part of any trade evaluation — public data is thin, scouts disagree, and the same 18-year-old shortstop can be worth wildly different chips depending on who you ask. Our engine leans into that by blending consensus scouting with a statistical model, not choosing one over the other.
1. Consensus Future Value (FV)
For every ranked prospect we compile a Future Value grade (20–80 scale) from up to four outlets:
- Baseball America (BA)
- Baseball Prospectus (BP)
- FanGraphs (FG)
- MLB Pipeline
The badge you see on a prospect card — e.g. 55 FV · 4/4 — means a consensus 55 grade appearing on all four lists. A prospect ranked by more outlets earns a small consensus premium (+1% to +5%) because broad agreement reduces bust risk.
2. Model FV (fallback + context)
For the thousands of prospects nobody ranks publicly, we compute a model FV from age-relative performance at each level:
- OPS or ERA vs. level average, adjusted for how young the player is for that level.
- Highest level reached (MLB > AAA > AA > A+ > A).
- Playing time thresholds so a 12-PA cup of coffee doesn't skew the grade.
For ranked prospects the model still contributes 20% of the final value; it acts as a sanity check on the scouting consensus.
3. FV → Trade Value curve
Our lookup curve is steeper than a linear scale because star prospects are exponentially rarer:
- FV 45 → ~40 value (org depth)
- FV 50 → ~55 value (future average regular)
- FV 55 → ~70 value (above-average regular)
- FV 60 → ~82 value (All-Star ceiling)
- FV 65 → ~91 value (star)
- FV 70+ → 96–99 value (superstar / generational)
4. ETA discount
A prospect two years from the majors is worth less than the same grade already in AAA. We apply a soft ~6% discount per year of ETA gap — gentler than a pure DCF because most of a prospect's value lives in the MLB ceiling, not the timing.
5. Youth premium
For high-FV prospects (55+), we add up to +10% when the player is 20 or younger, and a small haircut when they're already 25+ without a debut. Runway matters.
6. Blend into the final chip
The final trade-value number you see combines:
- 80% scouting-consensus value (curve + ETA + youth + consensus premium)
- 20% model FV value (from statistical performance)
For unranked players, it's 100% model FV. For MLB veterans who briefly touch prospect eligibility, the veteran stat-based valuation takes over.
Known limitations
- We don't have injury reports, medicals, or private industry rankings.
- Two-way players and low-level pitchers with tiny samples get conservative grades.
- Consensus lists refresh mid-season; between updates, hot starts and cold starts aren't fully priced in.
If a specific prospect looks miles off, hit the feedback stars on any verdict — those notes feed directly into our next calibration pass.